Rangers flop ignites major coefficient jeopardy as Cyprus humbling puts top 15 place at risk
Celtic loss and Aberdeen draw means we have added just 2.6 points to our Euro rankings total this season.
A poor week in Europe for Scottish clubs and in particular a disastrous week for the two Glasgow giants, both losing 2-1 in matches they would have expected to get something from.
It started with Celtic conceding a devastating 96th minute goal to Lazio to lose in their first home game of the European season. If they weren’t already, Rangers are a club well and truly in crisis. A meek defeat in Cyprus to a very average looking Aris Limassol side who sit fifth in their domestic table. Aberdeen’s battling 1-1 draw at home to HJK Helsinki was our only coefficient points earned of the week, but those 0.2 points are less than most countries in Europe managed to accumulate this week.
For Scotland to keep our top 10 position in the coefficient rankings (to guarantee next season’s champions direct entry into the Champions League) we need to aim for about 6-7 coefficient points each season. This is because the coefficient is calculated on a cumulative 5-year basis, and on average a total of 33.3 points has been enough to secure a top 10 spot over the last five years.
After this week’s three games, we’ve added 2.8 points to Scotland’s coefficient this season – an increase of only 0.2 thanks to Aberdeen’s 1-1 draw. It was a missed opportunity for both halves of the Old Firm, as with 0.4 points for a win and 0.2 points for a draw it was expected that Scotland would at least take the total to 3 points this week. Indeed, the poor week means we are only the 28th best performing nation so far this season, with the likes of Kosovo, Cyprus and Azerbaijan all adding more to their totals this season than we have.
While it was a dreadful week for Scotland’s coefficient, this is compounded by the performance of the countries around us in the rankings. Ahead of us in the table are Turkey in 9th – they added 1 whole point thanks to Galatasaray’s 3-2 victory at Old Trafford and Fenerbahçe’s 2-1 win away to Spartak Trnava.
Incredibly Beşiktaş were 2-0 up with 9 minutes to go but they suffered a major collapse to lose 3-2 at home to Lugano of Switzerland. Turkey extended the gap between them and us and are now 2.4 points ahead of us, roughly 7 victories, and so we are extremely unlikely to catch them.
With that in mind, even though Beşiktaş lost, this still wasn’t good news for us - as Switzerland in 12th are one of the closest challengers for our top 10 position. Turkey is the form league in Europe this season, with Beşiktaş’ defeat only Turkey’s 3rd in a remarkable 30 European matches this season and so they have a top 10 spot all but assured.
Immediately behind us in the top 10 chase are Austria and they pose the biggest threat. Thankfully Salzburg lost 2-0 at home to Real Sociedad in the Champions League. However, they are still in real contention to reach the last 16 which comes with a massive 1 extra coefficient bonus point.
This is the single biggest threat to our hopes of retaining top 10 – as should they achieve that feat then that could well be enough to leapfrog us, especially given the shape our 3 clubs are in after 2 matches. Sturm Graz were 2-0 winners away to Raków - but thankfully LASK lost in France to Toulouse. Sturm Graz’s victory closes the gap to Scotland, and Austria’s 0.4 points added means we are now only 1.45 points ahead of them ( that’s approximately 4 victories, but as mentioned there are also bonus points on offer for progression out of the groups)
Behind Austria in 12th are Switzerland – and up until this week they had been poor in Europe. Young Boys added 0.2 points to the Swiss total thanks to a 2-2 draw in Serbia, with former Ger Cedric Itten scoring a penalty against Red Star Belgrade. Lugano's comeback in Istanbul will go down as one of the most incredible Euro results this season.
In better news Servette, who Rangers eliminated from the Champions League in the third qualifying round, were hammered in Rome 4-0 by Jose Mourinho’s Roma. The 0.6 points Switzerland added cut our lead over them by 0.4 points and so we are now only 1.675 points ahead of them (a little over 4 victories)
How we finish the top 10 race this season will affect what European places are awarded at the END OF NEXT SEASON. There needs to be vast improvement from our teams in the next four gameweeks, otherwise we will drop out of the top 10 and next season’s SPFL champions will go back to having to navigate the Champions League Qualifiers.
Even more worrying is that at the end of this season, the points from our best campaign in the last five years (2019/20) will drop off our rolling 5-year coefficient total. That will chop a whopping 9.75 points off our haul and as a result we will, start next season way down in SIXTEENTH place. Czech Republic, Austria, Switzerland, Israel, Norway and Denmark will all currently start ahead of us in the fight to finish in the top 10.
That has big implications for our clubs in Europe, and if we were to finish next season sixteenth then the champions at the end of the following season (2025/26) would have 3 Champions League qualifying rounds to negotiate. Second place would have three Conference League qualifying rounds, and the Scottish Cup winners would no longer be guaranteed group stage football, and would instead face4 Europa League qualifying rounds. We’d also only enter 4 teams in European Competition instead of the current five – so it would be a bleak outcome and a dramatic fall from 9th and the rewards our clubs have enjoyed with direct entry over the last couple of seasons.
There’s still plenty of time and lots of games to add enough points to secure 10th this season, and to set us up for next year’s fight to avoid the depths of 16th in the rankings. But weeks like this certainly do not help our cause.