Artificial Intelligence calculates a surprise winner of the UEFA Champions League

With the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals now complete, various betting systems have been crunching the numbers to determine the favourite to lift the trophy. But there’s no consensus.

Barça’s demolition of Borussia Dortmund has propelled Hansi Flick’s side into the conversation as serious contenders to win it all in Munich.

In fact, major bookmakers currently have the Catalans as the top favourites. But according to Opta’s supercomputer... they’re second: Arteta’s Arsenal are out in front.

Arsenal are the Champions League favourites, according to AI

Using AI-driven predictions as a reference, Arsenal’s dominant 3-0 win over Real Madrid at the Emirates has boosted their chances to 27.8%—the highest among the remaining teams—while Barça sits just behind at 25.9%. Both sides are virtually considered semifinalists already, and in more than half of the simulations, the final features a showdown between the Blaugrana and Arteta’s squad.

The bookmakers, however, are backing Barcelona and show far less confidence in the Gunners. In fact, PSG, following their 3-1 victory over Aston Villa, are ranked as the second favourite by many betting outlets—offering odds almost identical to Barça’s. Luis Enrique’s high-tempo side appears to inspire more faith than Arsenal, who come in third in the betting.

Real Madrid... a glimmer of hope?

Despite all this shifting around, the different prediction systems align on everything else. Inter Milan, after their narrow win in Munich, are fourth favourites, while Bayern—buoyed by the prospect of a home final at the Allianz Arena—come in fifth.

Real Madrid, despite the hammering they took in London, are sixth among the eight quarterfinalists. Their chances of advancing and ultimately winning the Champions League are still considered better than Aston Villa’s, even though Unai Emery’s men avoided a similar thrashing in Paris.

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Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund are at the bottom of every ranking. A German comeback appears impossible according to the AI... and their odds are the longest of any team left in the tournament.

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