The Premier League’s UEFA Champions League qualification picture is looking clearer, at least in terms of how many teams are truly in the fight to qualify for the top five.
MORE - Full Premier League standings, 2024-25 season
Newcastle United are in third, the top of a crowded five-team field looking for three automatic spots in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League.
Also, for skeptics of second-place Arsenal, here’s why we are excluding them from this discussion for now — the Gunners remain seven points clear of sixth place. To over-simplify, the Gunners would have to drop points in at least three of their last four games and see multiple teams behind them play near-perfect football.
Fifth place in the Premier League gets a Champions League spot
The big change this season is that the team who finishes fifth in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League. Why? Well, that’s thanks to the performances of the Premier League teams in Europe this season as the coefficient is the highest among European leagues and the countries who are in the top two in terms of their coefficient get an extra Champions League spot. Usually the Premier League gets four spots, but this season they get five.
Can seven English teams qualify for the Champions League?
Yes, they can. If Arsenal win the Champions League this season and finish outside of the top five (very unlikely), they will qualify for the Champions League as the reigning champs. Both Spurs and Manchester United can’t finish in the top five, so if either win the Europa League they will qualify for the Champions League next season. So the Premier League’s top five, plus Arsenal and one of Manchester United or Spurs, would all be in the Champions League next season. That makes seven teams overall. More than likely Arsenal will finish in the top five but if Spurs or Man United win the Europa League they will be in the Champions League, so there will be six Premier League teams in the Champions League next season.
But in terms of the automatic spots via Premier League position, there are five teams scrapping for three spots. Let’s look at the fixture lists and project some point totals.
Newcastle United, 3rd place, 62 points, +21 GD — Can Newcastle make the Champions League?
May 4: Brighton v Newcastle United
May 10: Newcastle United v Chelsea*
May 18: Arsenal v Newcastle United
May 25: Newcastle United v Everton
*Match will move to May 11 if Chelsea play in UEFA Conference League on May 8.
Newcastle have two very difficult matches left, and used the room for error they’ve built almost all up in their 4-1 loss at Aston Villa on Saturday. Neither Brighton nor Everton will be pushovers, either.
Manchester City, 4th place, 61 points, +23 GD — Will Man City qualify for the Champions League?
April 27: FA Cup semifinal vs Nottingham Forest
May 2: Man City v Wolves
May 10: Southampton v Man City
May 17: Possible FA Cup Final
May 18: Man City v AFC Bournemouth**
May 25: Fulham v Man City
**Match to be moved if Man City reach FA Cup Final
City won’t feel great they are competing just to get into the Champions League, but they’ll love their route to potentially get there. There are a couple of solid teams on their list, but not one is a top-five threat following their late win over Aston Villa.
Chelsea fixtures, 5th place, 60 points, +19 GD — Will Chelsea reach the Champions League?
May 1: Conference League semifinal first leg at Djurgarden
May 4: Chelsea v Liverpool
May 8: Conference League semifinal second leg at Djurgarden
May 10: Newcastle United v Chelsea*
May 18: Chelsea v Man Utd
May 25: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
May 28: Possible Conference League Final
*Match will move to May 11 if Chelsea play in UEFA Conference League on May 8.
The Blues haven’t looked great lately but rallied to beat a solid Fulham side and still have three top-five hopefuls on the docket plus relative rivals Manchester United. They are the joker/wild card of this top-five chase.
Nottingham Forest, 6th place, 60 points, +14 GD — Will Forest make the Champions League?
April 27: FA Cup semifinal vs Man City
May 1: Nottingham Forest v Brentford
May 5: Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
May 11: Nottingham Forest v Leicester City
May 17: Possible FA Cup Final
May 18: West Ham v Nottingham Forest**
May 25: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
**Match to be moved if Forest reach FA Cup Final
Forest will feel very good about their home fixtures, especially on the heels of a big, gutsy win at Tottenham Hotspur. The toughest fixture left is likely the May 5 trip to Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. Nuno Espirito Santo has a very good chance at keeping a place in the UCL, especially if their fixture list is eased by an FA Cup semifinal loss to Man City.
Aston Villa fixtures, 7th place, 57 points, +5 GD — Can Aston Villa return to the Champions League?
April 26: FA Cup semifinal v Crystal Palace
May 3: Aston Villa v Fulham
May 10: AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa
May 17: Possible FA Cup Final
May 18: Aston Villa v Spurs**
May 25: Man Utd v Aston Villa
**Match to be moved if Villa reach FA Cup Final
Villa are deep but being asked to do a lot in a short period of time. Now out of the Champions League, they showed no signs of weariness or letdown in throttling Newcastle on the heels of their loss to PSG but a late slip against Man City in the Premier League comes before a huge match against Crystal Palace in an FA Cup semifinal. There’s a lot to ask here, but Unai Emery knows how to balance the need to compete on multiple fronts and may be Villa’s top weapon.
Predicting which Premier League teams reach the UEFA Champions League
1. Liverpool — 92 points
2. Arsenal — 77 points
3. Manchester City — 71 points
4. Newcastle United — 71 points
5. Nottingham Forest — 69 points
6. Aston Villa — 66 points
7. Chelsea — 61 points
