The cost of relegation from the Championship to League One as Cardiff City face disaster

The Bluebirds are staring down the barrel of relegation to League One after Monday's set of results

Cardiff City are standing on the brink of dropping down to the third tier of the football pyramid for the first time in 22 years.

The Bluebirds' agonising 1-1 draw against Oxford United was symptomatic of their entire campaign as a whole – simply not doing enough to get over the line. No team has won fewer games than Cardiff (nine) all season and the Bluebirds have lost a staggering 24 points from winning positions.

Those numbers, ultimately, have dogged their season and will be the reason they get relegated, should that eventuality transpire. The Bluebirds have two games left — at home to West Brom and away to Norwich City — but have a mountainous task ahead of them to get out of the bottom three. Join the Cardiff City breaking news and top stories WhatsApp community.

They are three points adrift in the danger zone, but their utterly shocking goal difference of -23 compared to the catchable teams of Derby County and Hull City (both -9) is as good as a point. So, in essence, four points from safety with two games to go. They need a perfect final two matches and divine intervention in other games for them to escape this time.

Many fans appear resigned to their fate, while others will be praying to the footballing Gods until it's mathematically impossible. But just what would relegation to League One look like in financial terms?

Broadcast revenue, basic awards and solidarity payments

While it's difficult to estimate exactly how much each club rakes in from broadcast revenue, it's fair to say there is a significant drop-off when it comes to TV money in the Championship compared to League one.

The EFL's five-year, £935 million domestic broadcast deal with Sky Sports covers the Championship, League One, and League Two, with over 1,000 matches broadcast annually. However the money received differs greatly between divisions.

The old deal saw Championship clubs bring in roughly £2.5m from the EFL's TV deal per season, however the new deal places that number at around £3-4m, plus per-match fees which could represent anywhere between £500,000 and £1.5m per season.

The EFL's international TV rights deal is also noteworthy, worth at least £148m and could add between £1m and £2m to the TV revenue pot before the deal.

Solidarity payments also account for a huge portion of Championship clubs' income. These are payments made by the Premier League to EFL clubs in order to support the wider football pyramid and reduce the financial gap between the divisions.

The money comes from a portion of the Premier League's broadcasting revenue, but it's not part of the EFL's own TV deal. Non-parachute payment Championship clubs receive solidarity payments from the Premier League, calculated as 30% of the third-year parachute payment. It is estimated at around £5m per Championship club.

Tally all the above and you're looking at anywhere between £9.5m and £12.5m. So, let's contrast that with League One.

Again, we don't have exact figures as TV money data tends to lag by a year and it's a new broadcasting deal, but let's make do with what we do know.

The Sky Sports deal is significantly lower in the third tier and clubs this season are expected to bring in roughly £800,000–£900,000 from TV rights. International rights are also a lot lower, too, potentially worth around £300,000–£500,000.

Per-match fees are lower, too. A League One club this season could potentially fetch in an estimated £200,000 extra in per-game fees.

For solidarity payments in League One for 2024/25, with rising Premier League TV revenues, each club could net around £780,000.

A rough estimate — and rough should be stressed because official figures are not available — of those income streams in League One for this season appear to sit at around £2m to £2.4m.

Value of the club and squad

Any drop from the Championship to League One is bound to drastically reduce the value of the club and the players which make up its squad.

There is a question hanging over Vincent Tan and that question will only creep further towards to the forefronts of more supporters' minds if relegation is confirmed: How much longer will he want to stick around?

The Malaysian businessman has been at the club more than a decade and a half and has enjoyed two promotions to the Premier League, suffered two relegations — with the third looming — and kept the club afloat year after year with deep pockets and vast investment. The quality of many of those investments has been a source of constant questioning by many fans, however.

The trajectory of the club's first team has steadily declined over the last six years. So, will Tan have the desire to mount a League One promotion charge and build a promotion-winning squad? His dream is to see Cardiff in the Premier League again but that is way off if they end up in League One.

It's almost impossible to place a value on the club, should Tan want to sell it. Five years ago, the figure of £75m was touted, however that number is likely somewhere between £50m and £75m now, consistent with other Championship clubs who are thought to value themselves at roughly two or three times their annual revenue – last year Cardiff turned over £23.2m. However, it's a case of the old adage – a club is worth however much a buyer is willing to pay.

Cardiff's squad value is estimated to be around £41.8m, according to Transfermarkt, however players worth a combined £11.75m are either on loan or out of contract in June, reducing that number immediately to £30.05m. In addition, player values can drop by 20 to 40 percent after relegation.

Cardiff board member and non-executive director Steve Borley also recently confirmed "some players' contracts include relegation clauses but even that would not be enough, so cost cutting would be needed".

There are many facets to relegation clauses, designed to protect both the club and the player. The club-imposed clauses can mean a reduction in wages for players if the team drops to a lower division. They can also stipulate that, if a team bids a certain amount as agreed in the contract, the club must accept the offer and allow said player to leave.

There are positives. The new training ground — although there were rumours work on that had ground to a halt amid the threat of relegation — and plush new academy site in Llanrumney are, or will be, valuable assets. It is also a capital city with vast potential and a huge, latent fan base. While that might be cliché to say, it doesn't make it any less true. The ceiling is high and it is commercially well run in comparison to other Championship clubs.

But the substantial drop in TV revenue, decrease in player market values and potential loss of commercial and matchday income could see the club valuation fall substantially – even by as much as 30 or 40 percent. Sign up to our daily Cardiff City newsletter here.